gHRV: Heart rate variability analysis made easy

In this paper, the gHRV software tool is presented. It is a simple, free and portable tool developed in python for analysing heart rate variability. It includes a graphical user interface and it can import files in multiple formats, analyse time intervals in the signal, test statistical significance and export the results.     

电容式土壤水分传感器的电导变异性试验研究

为评估电容式土壤水分传感器受土壤电导率的影响及其对农田土壤电导率变化范围的适用性,配制了一系列土壤等效含水率为40.6%、电导率为0~1.91dS/m的土壤等效介电溶液,分别对激励信号频率为40,50,60,70,80,90,100MHz的7种传感器进行了电导变异性试验,并且配制了相同含水率但电导率分别为0,0.31,0.46和0.61dS/m的4种土样进行了验证试验。试验结果表明:1)土样中的测试结果基本上与介电溶液吻合,可采用等效介电溶液评估传感器的电导变异性;2)传感器的电导变异率随待测介质电导率的升高而近似线性增大,相同电导率下,传感器激励信号频率越高其电导变异率越小;3)在农田土壤电导率基本变化区域0.239~0.650 dS/m内,当传感器激励信号频率从不低于80MHz时,其最大电导变异率为9.2%,能满足工程上的实际应用要求。     

聚氯乙烯弹性体气候老化性能研究

将聚氯乙烯(PVC)弹性体试样进行户外曝晒试验,对试样老化前后的外观、力学性能、扫描电镜、红外光谱等试验结果进行分析比较,考察了光、热、氧对PVC弹性体气候老化性能的影响。研究结果表明:曝晒6个月后PVC的外观暗淡但有韧性,出现少量裂纹,分布也不均匀;拉伸强度逐渐增加,而断裂伸长率逐渐下降,16个月时下降到73.26%。导致断裂伸长率下降和拉伸强度逐渐增加的原因是DOP增塑剂的慢慢挥发。PVC样品经过16个月的曝晒后的红外光谱显示:波峰1620cm-1的出现说明有C=C存在,波峰969cm-1的消失说明高分子中的CH2断裂,这些都是分子老化所造成的。最后通过数学建模应用软件计算16个月后的断裂伸长率,预测可知:PVC弹性体在户外暴露30个月后就失去使用价值。     

Impact of agriculture on soil consumption of atmospheric CH4 and a comparison of CH4 and N2O flux in subarctic, temperate and tropical grasslands

Increasing concentrations of methane (CH₄) in the atmosphere are projected to account for about 25% of the net radiative forcing. Biospheric emissions of CH₄ to the atmosphere total approximately 400 Tg C y^-1. An estimated 300 Tg of CH₄-C y^-1 is oxidized in the atmosphere by hydroxyl radicals while about 40 Tg y^-1 remains in the atmosphere. Approximately 40 Tg y^-1 of the atmospheric burden is oxidized in aerobic soils. Research efforts during the past several years have focused on quantifying CH₄ sources while relatively less effort has been directed toward quantifying and understanding the soil sink for atmospheric CH₄. Recent research has demonstrated that land use change, including agricultural use of native forest and grassland systems has decreased the soil sink for atmospheric methane. Some agricultural systems consume atmospheric CH₄ at rates less than 10% of those found in comparable undisturbed soils. While it has been necessary to change land use practices over the past centuries to meet the required production of food and fiber, we need to recognize and account for impacts of land use change on the biogeochemical nutrient cycles in the biosphere. Changes that have ensued in these cycles have and will impact the atmospheric concentrations of CH₄ and N₂O. Since CH₄ and N₂O production and consumption are accomplished by a variety of soil microorganisms, the influence of changing agricultural, forest, and, demographic patterns has been large. Existing management and technological practices may already exist to limit the effect of land use change and agriculture on trace gas fluxes. It is therefore important to understand how management and land use affect trace gas fluxes and to observe the effect of new technology on them. This paper describes the role of aerobic soils in the global CH₄ budget and the impact of agriculture on this soil CH₄ sink. Examples from field studies made across subarctic, temperate and tropical climate gradients in grasslands are used to demonstrate the influence of nutrient cycle perturbations on the soil consumption of atmospheric CH₄ and in increased N₂O emissions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

考虑土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和体积分析

基于随机有限元方法（RFEM）和Monte-Carlo模拟,建立了能够模拟具有深度依赖性的土体强度参数边坡或具有软弱夹层边坡的非平稳随机场模型。通过辐射扫描方法获取最危险滑动面,得到非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和滑动体积。将该方法与均质边坡和平稳随机场边坡获得的滑动深度和滑动体积进行对比,研究土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡的不同坡度和各向异性对滑动深度和滑动体积的影响。结果表明：基于RFEM的非平稳随机场滑动深度和滑动体积结果为地质灾害风险及后果评估提供了一个参考分析的新角度;参数的深度依赖性程度越高(变化率b越大),则边坡平均滑动深度和滑动体积越小;在大坡度滑坡风险后果评估中,可以基于均质边坡分析结果进行初步预估;在非平稳随机场中,随着各向异性的增大,所有坡度边坡的滑动体积变异系数增大;不同坡度下,水平方向的相关程度越大,则土坡内软弱夹层的不确定性越强,滑动体积的变异系数也不断增大。     

海河流域干旱特征与旱涝交替降雨事件概率分析

在气候变化影响下,极值事件频发,旱涝交替加快。以海河流域42个代表性气象站点1963~2013年的逐日降雨资料为基础,使用SOM神经网络算法,对气象站点进行聚类分区,选取连续无雨日干旱评价方法确定海河流域干旱等级,在此基础上采用Pearson-Ⅲ频率曲线对干旱之后的最大降雨量进行保证性分析,计算不同等级干旱发生后降雨强度达到中到大雨及大到暴雨的概率。结果表明,随着年内干旱发生次数的增加,降雨频次在减小,降雨强度明显增强,海河流域极大可能同时遭受旱涝灾害。研究结果可为海河流域旱涝事件的应对提供有力支撑。     

山西省孝义市近40年气候变化特征分析

为了深入研究山西省孝义市气候变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验及Morlet小波变换等方法对孝义市1975-2015年气候要素进行趋势估计、突变检验、周期分析及发展趋势预测。结果表明:近40年来,孝义市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,突变年份为1996年,存在32、9 a长周期;年降雨量呈不显著下降趋势,突变年份为1990年,存在32、6 a长周期;年蒸发量呈显著性上升趋势,突变年份为1997年,存在32、10 a长周期;年平均相对湿度呈显著下降趋势,突变年份为1982、2003年,存在15、32 a长周期。孝义市1975-2015年年代际气候经历了"冷湿-暖湿-暖干"的变化过程,预测全境2017-2030年年代际气候将经历"冷湿-暖干"的变化过程。     

Effects of hydrological changes on cooperation in transnational catchments: the case of the Syr Darya

Water allocation along the Syr Darya River may be affected by climate change. Here we statistically model cooperation strategies, country profits, and sensitivity of cooperation, showing that the hydrological regime affects transboundary cooperation. Climate change in the twenty-first century may reduce glacial cover, and reducing stream flows, decreasing chances of cooperation and potentially raising conflicts. Comparison with other transboundary catchments in Central Asia indicates moderate-to-high risk of conflicts for the Syr Darya. A template is provided for assessment of the stability of cooperation in the Syr Darya basin, and in catchments similarly dependent on water availability.     

非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述

伴随全球气候变暖和平均海平面持续上升,极端气象事件出现的频率增加、强度增大,气候变化已经成为导致水文极值非平稳性的一个重要原因。本文总结了气候-水文变化研究中常用非平稳时间序列极值统计模型的结构以及统计推断方法,从降雨极值变化、洪水极值变化等方面分析了非平稳时间序列极值统计模型在气候-水文变化研究中的典型应用案例。国内外研究表明:非平稳时间序列极值统计模型能体现水文极值随时间或协变量的变化情势,非平稳情况下水文极值重现期和风险的概念和计算方法与传统平稳时间序列的频率分析相比存在显著差异。最后对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望。     

灞河流域气候因子对水沙变化的影响

利用灞河流域蓝田气象站和马渡王水文站1960—2012年的气象、水文实测资料,分析灞河流域气候及水沙变化规律,同时运用相关性分析、灰色关联分析、多元线性回归模型等多种方法探讨了该流域水沙变化与气候变化的关系。结果表明:灞河流域降雨量、蒸发量、径流量和输沙量皆呈显著下降趋势,而气温呈上升趋势;降雨量与水沙都有重要的相关关系,1960—1990年影响径流量的气候因子敏感度由大至小依次为降雨量、气温、蒸发量,而1991—2012年则为降雨量、蒸发量、气温,当气温和蒸发量不变时,降雨量每增加1 mm,两阶段的年径流量分别增加0.14亿m3和0.08亿m3;1960—2012年影响输沙量的气候因子敏感度由大至小依次为降雨量、气温、蒸发量,当气温和蒸发量不变时,降雨量每增加1 mm,年输沙量增加0.668万t。